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This is a classic mathematic problem related to organic structures.
(a topic [[Erlend Eidsem Hansen]] studied during his early years in object oriented computer programming.)
The metaphor of the bag of marbles is used in figuring out probability in math. The idea is that a participant at a larp will encounter clues or incentives at a larp-game in much the same way as someone pulling random marbles out of a bag.
(The math behind it is described as the "Bags of Marble" puzzle and can be searched on the internet using "math theory" & "bag of marbles").